Where "Buckley's Chance" Comes From
The most popular theory links the phrase to William Buckley (1780–1856), a convict who escaped a Victorian penal settlement in 1803 and lived with Aboriginal people for 32 years — a feat so unlikely that his name became shorthand for near-impossible odds. The expression doesn't appear in print until 1895, leaving a 40-year gap during which oral tradition presumably did the work.
A second, competing theory ties it to Buckley & Nunn, a well-known Melbourne department store founded in 1851, giving the phrase a punning meaning — "two chances: Buckley's and Nunn's," meaning none. The World Wide Words site notes the Buckley & Nunn theory is dismissed by some etymologists as "a folk etymology too good to be true." No documentary evidence has definitively settled the debate between the two.
"You've got Buckley's chance of finishing that in one day."
How Aussies Actually Use It
"Buckley's chance" — often shortened to just "Buckley's" — is used whenever someone's odds of success are essentially nil.
It's a distinctly Australian and New Zealand expression, rarely heard elsewhere, and still very much in everyday use.
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